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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (DIA)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Thu, May 28, 2026, 9:03 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-05-28
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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VXD: 15.37 (+0.00) š¢
DIA Term: CONTANGO (+21.4%) ā
āā 20d RV 12.0 sits below 60d RV 14.6: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
DIA: $506.58 (Gap: +0.26%) š¢
Weekly Momentum: DIA: +79.2 (1w: -23.3) strong bull š¢ | SATY +15.9 ST +50 EMA +50 D +17.5
Industrials: XLI/SPY: 0.232 (5d: +0.99%) š¢
Financials: XLF/SPY: 0.069 (5d: -1.62%) š“
10Y Yield: $TNX: 44.81 (5d: -1.86) š¢
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-12 Tue 496.51 498.41 493.19 497.89 1.05 + 0.28 7.4 NORMAL
2026-05-13 Wed 496.16 497.61 494.63 497.14 0.60 + 0.20 3.3 DEAD
2026-05-14 Thu 501.39 502.16 498.85 500.80 0.66 -0.12 4.9 LOW VOL
2026-05-15 Fri 497.32 497.74 495.08 495.37 0.53 -0.39 5.3 DEAD
2026-05-18 Mon 495.65 497.64 493.60 497.01 0.82 + 0.27 5.5 LOW VOL
2026-05-19 Tue 494.83 496.34 492.58 493.98 0.76 -0.17 5.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-20 Wed 495.87 500.93 492.49 500.24 1.70 + 0.88 6.5 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 498.78 504.05 497.21 503.11 1.37 + 0.87 6.6 HIGH VOL
2026-05-22 Fri 507.01 508.74 505.69 506.12 0.60 -0.18 5.2 DEAD
2026-05-26 Tue 507.57 508.24 503.97 505.25 0.84 -0.46 3.9 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 0.89%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.38%
Avg Volume: 4.7M
Last Day Volume: 3.9M (84% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: HIGH VOL ā DEAD ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā DRIFT ā BEAR
Range trend: 1.37% ā 0.84%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: LOW VOL ā ļø
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BULLISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
VXD Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
DIA Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Tighter moves, more T4/T5/T6 exits
⢠Options may struggle to hit 20%+
⢠More breakeven and small gains likely
⢠Be more selective on entries
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠75-100% of normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor DIA long setups on pullbacks
⢠Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāā ā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā ā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāā
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