free preview: direction, regime, and archive stay open. confidence, regime-change internals, and swing-plan values are masked until you unlock the desk.

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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (SPY)
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REPORT REFRESH
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  Saved refresh: Wed, Jun 3, 2026, 9:12 AM EDT
  Saved session: pre-open
  Report date:   2026-06-03
šŸ“” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
----------------------------------------
  VIX:        16.27 (+0.50) šŸŸ¢
  VIX Term:   CONTANGO (+19.8%) āœ…
              ā””ā”€ Normal term structure
  SPY:        $759.20 (Gap: +0.09%) āšŖ
  Weekly Momentum:    SPY: +140.8 (1w: -6.4) strong bull šŸŸ¢ | SATY +25.9 ST +50 EMA +50 D +50.0
  Breadth:    RSP/SPY: 0.276 (5d: -0.45%) šŸ”“
  Credit:    HYG/LQD: 0.734 (5d: -0.48%) šŸ”“
  10Y Yield:    $TNX: 44.55 (5d: -0.38) šŸŸ¢

šŸ“… UPCOMING EVENTS
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  šŸ”“ TODAY 10:00: ISM Services PMI
  šŸŸ” Tomorrow 08:30: Unemployment Claims
  šŸ”“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  šŸ”“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Non-Farm Employment Change

šŸ“Š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date         Day       Open      High       Low     Close  Range%   Move%  Vol(M) Regime    
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2026-05-18   Mon     739.83    741.41    733.39    738.65    1.08  -0.16    47.8 NORMAL    
2026-05-19   Tue     734.78    737.65    731.53    733.73    0.83  -0.14    54.3 NORMAL    
2026-05-20   Wed     735.71    741.87    733.89    741.25    1.08 +  0.75    45.8 NORMAL    
2026-05-21   Thu     738.64    744.87    737.03    742.72    1.06 +  0.55    43.3 NORMAL    
2026-05-22   Fri     746.24    748.94    744.48    745.64    0.60  -0.08    41.8 LOW VOL   
2026-05-26   Tue     750.01    752.13    748.37    750.59    0.50 +  0.08    41.1 DEAD      
2026-05-27   Wed     750.88    751.38    748.22    750.46    0.42  -0.06    42.1 DEAD      
2026-05-28   Thu     750.25    755.15    749.23    754.60    0.79 +  0.58    41.6 NORMAL    
2026-05-29   Fri     755.90    758.08    754.69    756.48    0.45 +  0.08    55.1 DEAD      
2026-06-01   Mon     755.36    760.28    754.69    758.54    0.74 +  0.42    43.6 LOW VOL   
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šŸ“ˆ SUMMARY STATISTICS
----------------------------------------
  Avg Daily Range:    0.76%
  Avg Absolute Move:  0.29%
  Avg Volume:         47.3M
  Last Day Volume:    43.6M (92% of avg)

šŸ“‰ REGIME BREAKDOWN:
  NORMAL     ā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 5 days (50%)
  DEAD       ā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 3 days (30%)
  LOW VOL    ā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 2 days (20%)

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šŸŽÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
================================================================================

  Last 3 days regime:     NORMAL ā†’ DEAD ā†’ LOW VOL
  Last 3 days direction:  BULL ā†’ CHOP ā†’ BULL
  Range trend:            0.79% ā†’ 0.74%

  šŸ§­ BASELINE REGIME:     LOW VOL āš ļø
  šŸ“Š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: LOW VOL āš ļø
              ā””ā”€ Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
  šŸ“ˆ EXPECTED DIRECTION:  BULLISH šŸ“ˆ
  āš” CONFIDENCE:          ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’
  šŸ”„ REGIME CHANGE PROB:  ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’

  CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
    Regime Consistency   ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Range Stability      ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    VIX Alignment        ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Volume Health        ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’

  REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
    Range Stable         ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    VIX Term             ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Event Risk           ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Regime Instability   ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Cross-Asset Stress   ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

  šŸ“‹ STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
    ā€¢ Tighter moves, more T4/T5/T6 exits
    ā€¢ Options may struggle to hit 20%+
    ā€¢ More breakeven and small gains likely
    ā€¢ Be more selective on entries

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šŸ“‹ TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
================================================================================

  šŸ’° POSITION SIZING:
      ā€¢ 75-100% of normal size

  āš” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (53% probability):
      ā€¢ Conditions may shift from the current regime
      ā€¢ Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
      ā€¢ Watch the first 30 minutes closely

  šŸŽÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
      ā€¢ Favor SPY long setups on pullbacks
      ā€¢ Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms

  ā° SESSION TIMING:
      ā€¢ 9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
      ā€¢ 10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
      ā€¢ 11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
      ā€¢ 2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window

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šŸ“† 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
================================================================================

  SWING BIAS:             ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING SIZE:             ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING THESIS:           ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING ENTRY:            ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING INVALIDATION:     ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING CATALYST WINDOW:  ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

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Spy Alignment

see what confirms or diverges from spy.

benchmark

SPY

benchmark

2026-06-03

regime
LOW VOL
direction
BULLISH
matrix alignment score
67%
swing bias
ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
price
$759.20
gap
0.09%
vix
16.27
vol move
+0.50
vol state
firming
confidenceā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
change riskā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

benchmark read

open spyview archive
confirmation

QQQ

confirming

2026-06-03

regime
NORMAL
direction
BULLISH
local stat alignment
89%
swing bias
ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
price
$746.51
gap
0.51%
vxn
23.27
vol move
0.00
vol state
stable
confidenceā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
change riskā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

QQQ is aligned with SPY on direction, confidence, and change risk, with softer regime and volatility state still worth monitoring.

open qqqview archive
confirmation

IWM

weaker

2026-06-03

regime
NORMAL
direction
MIXED/CHOP
local stat alignment
59%
swing bias
ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
price
$290.67
gap
0.58%
rvx
22.76
vol move
0.00
vol state
stable
confidenceā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
change riskā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

IWM points in the same general direction as SPY, but direction, regime, change risk, and volatility state are not clean enough for full confirmation.

open iwmview archive
confirmation

TLT

confirming

2026-06-03

regime
NORMAL
direction
BULLISH
local stat alignment
83%
swing bias
ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
price
$85.35
gap
-0.14%
vxtlt
11.29
vol move
0.00
vol state
stable
confidenceā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
change riskā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

TLT is aligned with SPY on direction, change risk, and swing bias, with softer regime and confidence still worth monitoring.

open tltview archive
confirmation

ES

confirming

2026-06-03

regime
LOW VOL
direction
BULLISH
local stat alignment
80%
swing bias
ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
price
$7607.25
gap
-0.22%
vix
16.27
vol move
+0.50
vol state
firming
confidenceā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
change riskā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

ES is aligned with SPY on direction, regime, and volatility state, with softer confidence and change risk still worth monitoring.

open esview archive
confirmation

BTC

diverging

2026-06-03

regime
NORMAL
direction
BEARISH
local stat alignment
25%
swing bias
ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
price
$67225.00
gap
-0.25%
hv20
29.79
vol move
-1.99
vol state
cooling
confidenceā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
change riskā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

BTC is not confirming SPY; the mismatch shows up in direction, swing bias, and volatility state.

open btcview archive
unlock confirmation matrix

Index + Macro opens QQQ, IWM, DIA, TLT, GLD, ES, and NQ plus the confirmation matrix and archive. Regime Pro adds MAG 7, BTC, ETH, forex, and the web-enabled analyst.

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