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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (DIA)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Thu, May 28, 2026, 4:08 PM EDT
Saved session: post-close
Report date: 2026-05-28
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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VXD: 14.96 (-0.41) š¢
DIA Term: CONTANGO (+23.7%) ā
āā 20d RV 11.7 sits below 60d RV 14.5: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
DIA: $507.05 (Gap: +0.00%) āŖ
Weekly Momentum: DIA: +95.0 (1w: -7.5) strong bull š¢ | SATY +21.5 ST +50 EMA +50 D +20.1
Industrials: XLI/SPY: 0.232 (5d: +0.99%) š¢
Financials: XLF/SPY: 0.069 (5d: -1.62%) š“
10Y Yield: $TNX: 44.81 (5d: -1.86) š¢
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-14 Thu 501.39 502.16 498.85 500.80 0.66 -0.12 4.9 LOW VOL
2026-05-15 Fri 497.32 497.74 495.08 495.37 0.53 -0.39 5.3 DEAD
2026-05-18 Mon 495.65 497.64 493.60 497.01 0.82 + 0.27 5.5 LOW VOL
2026-05-19 Tue 494.83 496.34 492.58 493.98 0.76 -0.17 5.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-20 Wed 495.87 500.93 492.49 500.24 1.70 + 0.88 6.5 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 498.78 504.05 497.21 503.11 1.37 + 0.87 6.6 HIGH VOL
2026-05-22 Fri 507.01 508.74 505.69 506.12 0.60 -0.18 5.2 DEAD
2026-05-26 Tue 507.57 508.24 503.97 505.25 0.84 -0.46 3.9 LOW VOL
2026-05-27 Wed 505.93 508.70 505.81 506.88 0.57 + 0.19 4.2 DEAD
2026-05-28 Thu 505.33 508.21 503.64 507.05 0.90 + 0.34 3.5 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 0.88%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.39%
Avg Volume: 4.7M
Last Day Volume: 3.5M (73% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: LOW VOL ā DEAD ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: BEAR ā DRIFT ā DRIFT
Range trend: 0.84% ā 0.90%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: LOW VOL ā ļø
āā Live tape is running one regime quieter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BULLISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
VXD Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
DIA Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Tighter moves, more T4/T5/T6 exits
⢠Options may struggle to hit 20%+
⢠More breakeven and small gains likely
⢠Be more selective on entries
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠75-100% of normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor DIA long setups on pullbacks
⢠Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāā āāā āā ā āāā āāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāā
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