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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (DIA)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Wed, Jun 3, 2026, 11:14 AM EDT
Saved session: post-open
Report date: 2026-06-03
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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VXD: 15.57 (+0.59) š”
DIA Term: CONTANGO (+48.1%) ā
āā 20d RV 9.4 sits below 60d RV 14.0: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
DIA: $509.67 (Gap: -0.85%) š“
Weekly Momentum: DIA: +142.7 (1w: +16.7) strong bull š¢ | SATY +28.6 ST +50 EMA +50 D +46.6
Industrials: XLI/SPY: 0.229 (5d: -1.24%) š“
Financials: XLF/SPY: 0.068 (5d: -1.93%) š“
10Y Yield: $TNX: 44.55 (5d: -0.38) š¢
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-19 Tue 494.83 496.34 492.58 493.98 0.76 -0.17 5.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-20 Wed 495.87 500.93 492.49 500.24 1.70 + 0.88 6.5 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 498.78 504.05 497.21 503.11 1.37 + 0.87 6.6 HIGH VOL
2026-05-22 Fri 507.01 508.74 505.69 506.12 0.60 -0.18 5.2 DEAD
2026-05-26 Tue 507.57 508.24 503.97 505.25 0.84 -0.46 3.9 NORMAL
2026-05-27 Wed 505.93 508.70 505.81 506.88 0.57 + 0.19 4.2 DEAD
2026-05-28 Thu 505.33 508.21 503.64 507.05 0.90 + 0.34 3.7 NORMAL
2026-05-29 Fri 507.90 511.31 507.20 510.78 0.81 + 0.57 5.3 LOW VOL
2026-06-01 Mon 509.85 511.86 508.33 511.44 0.69 + 0.31 4.4 LOW VOL
2026-06-02 Tue 509.08 514.49 508.93 514.05 1.09 + 0.98 5.1 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 0.93%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.49%
Avg Volume: 4.8M
Last Day Volume: 5.1M (105% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: LOW VOL ā LOW VOL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā DRIFT ā BULL
Range trend: 0.81% ā 1.09%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is running one regime hotter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BULLISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
VXD Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
DIA Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
ā” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (51% probability):
⢠Conditions may shift from the current regime
⢠Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
⢠Watch the first 30 minutes closely
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor DIA long setups on pullbacks
⢠Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā ā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāā āāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āā āāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āā āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāā
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