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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (DIA)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Thu, Jun 4, 2026, 11:09 AM EDT
Saved session: post-open
Report date: 2026-06-04
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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VXD: 15.20 (-0.34) š¢
DIA Term: CONTANGO (+35.8%) ā
āā 20d RV 10.5 sits below 60d RV 14.2: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
DIA: $516.27 (Gap: +1.58%) š¢
Weekly Momentum: DIA: +86.9 (1w: -39.0) strong bull š¢ | SATY +9.1 ST +50 EMA +50 D +36.7
Industrials: XLI/SPY: 0.231 (5d: -0.64%) š“
Financials: XLF/SPY: 0.067 (5d: -1.57%) š“
10Y Yield: $TNX: 44.91 (5d: +0.10) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Tomorrow 08:30: Jobs Report
š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-20 Wed 495.87 500.93 492.49 500.24 1.70 + 0.88 6.5 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 498.78 504.05 497.21 503.11 1.37 + 0.87 6.6 HIGH VOL
2026-05-22 Fri 507.01 508.74 505.69 506.12 0.60 -0.18 5.2 DEAD
2026-05-26 Tue 507.57 508.24 503.97 505.25 0.84 -0.46 3.9 NORMAL
2026-05-27 Wed 505.93 508.70 505.81 506.88 0.57 + 0.19 4.2 DEAD
2026-05-28 Thu 505.33 508.21 503.64 507.05 0.90 + 0.34 3.7 NORMAL
2026-05-29 Fri 507.90 511.31 507.20 510.78 0.81 + 0.57 5.3 LOW VOL
2026-06-01 Mon 509.85 511.86 508.33 511.44 0.69 + 0.31 4.4 LOW VOL
2026-06-02 Tue 509.08 514.49 508.93 514.05 1.09 + 0.98 5.1 NORMAL
2026-06-03 Wed 511.17 512.85 507.99 508.26 0.95 -0.57 4.1 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 0.95%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.53%
Avg Volume: 4.9M
Last Day Volume: 4.1M (84% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: LOW VOL ā NORMAL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: DRIFT ā BULL ā BEAR
Range trend: 0.69% ā 0.95%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: MIXED/CHOP āļø
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
VXD Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
DIA Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Mixed āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠No strong directional bias
⢠Quick exits and tighter targets make more sense
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāā ā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āā āāā āā ā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāā
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