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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (DIA)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Fri, Jun 5, 2026, 9:14 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-06-05
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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VXD: 15.26 (+0.00) š¢
DIA Term: CONTANGO (+35.8%) ā
āā 20d RV 10.5 sits below 60d RV 14.2: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
DIA: $517.11 (Gap: +1.74%) š¢
Weekly Momentum: DIA: +86.9 (1w: -39.0) strong bull š¢ | SATY +9.1 ST +50 EMA +50 D +36.7
Industrials: XLI/SPY: 0.233 (5d: +1.02%) š¢
Financials: XLF/SPY: 0.069 (5d: +1.46%) š¢
10Y Yield: $TNX: 44.77 (5d: +0.22) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-20 Wed 495.87 500.93 492.49 500.24 1.70 + 0.88 6.5 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 498.78 504.05 497.21 503.11 1.37 + 0.87 6.6 HIGH VOL
2026-05-22 Fri 507.01 508.74 505.69 506.12 0.60 -0.18 5.2 DEAD
2026-05-26 Tue 507.57 508.24 503.97 505.25 0.84 -0.46 3.9 NORMAL
2026-05-27 Wed 505.93 508.70 505.81 506.88 0.57 + 0.19 4.2 DEAD
2026-05-28 Thu 505.33 508.21 503.64 507.05 0.90 + 0.34 3.7 NORMAL
2026-05-29 Fri 507.90 511.31 507.20 510.78 0.81 + 0.57 5.3 LOW VOL
2026-06-01 Mon 509.85 511.86 508.33 511.44 0.69 + 0.31 4.4 LOW VOL
2026-06-02 Tue 509.08 514.49 508.93 514.05 1.09 + 0.98 5.1 NORMAL
2026-06-03 Wed 511.17 512.85 507.99 508.26 0.95 -0.57 4.1 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 0.95%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.53%
Avg Volume: 4.9M
Last Day Volume: 4.1M (84% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: LOW VOL ā NORMAL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: DRIFT ā BULL ā BEAR
Range trend: 0.69% ā 0.95%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BULLISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
VXD Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
DIA Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Regime Mixed āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor DIA long setups on pullbacks
⢠Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā ā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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