free preview: direction, regime, and archive stay open. confidence, regime-change internals, and swing-plan values are masked until you unlock the desk.

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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (ETH)
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REPORT REFRESH
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  Saved refresh: Wed, Apr 29, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT
  Saved session: post-close
  Report date:   2026-04-29
  Table note:    Completed CME sessions; Friday can remain the latest row after a weekend refresh.
šŸ“” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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  HV20:        40.06 (-0.29) šŸŸ¢
  Vol Structure:   CONTANGO (+81.9%) āœ…
              ā””ā”€ 20d RV 40.1 sits below 60d RV 72.9: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
  ETH:        2237.50 (Session: -3.22%) šŸ”“
  Contract:   /ETHK26
  Weekly Momentum:    ETH: -31.1 (1w: -65.0) strong bear šŸ”“ | SATY -12.1 ST +50 EMA -50 D -9.5
  ETH/BTC:    ETH/BTC: 0.02952 (5d: -3.04%) šŸ”“
  Dollar:    UUP: 27.53 (5d: +0.06) šŸ”“
  Crypto Beta:    COIN/QQQ: 0.295 (5d: -2.94%) šŸ”“
  Model note:  Using Schwab root /ETH, which auto-resolves to the active front-month CME ether futures contract.

šŸ“… UPCOMING EVENTS
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  šŸ”“ Fri 05/01 08:30: Jobs Report
  šŸ”“ Wed 05/06 08:30: FOMC Decision

šŸ“Š LAST 10 COMPLETED CME SESSIONS
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Date         Day       Open      High       Low     Close  Range%   Move%  Vol(K) Regime    
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2026-04-16   Thu    2368.00   2388.00   2288.50   2353.50    4.20  -0.61    14.9 LOW VOL   
2026-04-17   Fri    2346.50   2472.00   2320.50   2431.00    6.46 +  3.60    20.3 NORMAL    
2026-04-20   Mon    2285.00   2347.50   2253.00   2341.00    4.14 +  2.45    18.2 LOW VOL   
2026-04-21   Tue    2327.00   2342.00   2286.50   2320.50    2.39  -0.28    13.1 DEAD      
2026-04-22   Wed    2316.00   2427.50   2305.50   2391.00    5.27 +  3.24    16.9 NORMAL    
2026-04-23   Thu    2407.50   2407.50   2286.00   2324.00    5.05  -3.47    12.8 LOW VOL   
2026-04-24   Fri    2341.50   2353.50   2309.50   2341.00    1.88  -0.02     9.0 DEAD      
2026-04-27   Mon    2372.50   2419.50   2275.00   2302.50    6.09  -2.95    12.4 NORMAL    
2026-04-28   Tue    2300.50   2322.00   2266.50   2307.00    2.41 +  0.28     6.6 DEAD      
2026-04-29   Wed    2302.50   2359.00   2227.00   2237.50    5.73  -2.82    14.7 NORMAL    
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šŸ“ˆ SUMMARY STATISTICS
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  Avg Daily Range:    4.36%
  Avg Absolute Move:  1.97%
  Avg Volume:         13.6K contracts
  Last Day Volume:    14.7K contracts (108% of avg)

šŸ“‰ REGIME BREAKDOWN:
  NORMAL     ā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 4 days (40%)
  DEAD       ā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 3 days (30%)
  LOW VOL    ā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 3 days (30%)

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šŸŽÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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  Last 3 days regime:     NORMAL ā†’ DEAD ā†’ NORMAL
  Last 3 days direction:  BEAR ā†’ CHOP ā†’ BEAR
  Range trend:            6.09% ā†’ 5.73%

  šŸ§­ BASELINE REGIME:     NORMAL āœ…
  šŸ“Š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL āœ…
              ā””ā”€ Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
  šŸ“ˆ EXPECTED DIRECTION:  BEARISH šŸ“‰
  āš” CONFIDENCE:          ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’
  šŸ”„ REGIME CHANGE PROB:  ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’

  CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
    Regime Consistency   ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Range Stability      ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    HV20 Alignment       ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Volume Health        ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’

  REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
    Range Stable         ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Vol Structure        ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Event Risk           ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Regime Mixed         ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Cross-Asset Stress   ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

  šŸ“‹ STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
    ā€¢ Balanced conditions for all tiers
    ā€¢ Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
    ā€¢ Good trade frequency expected
    ā€¢ Standard tier logic should work well

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šŸ“‹ TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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  šŸ’° POSITION SIZING:
      ā€¢ 100% normal size

  šŸŽÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
      ā€¢ Favor ETH downside setups on bounces
      ā€¢ Press winners when confirmation stays intact

  ā° SESSION TIMING:
      ā€¢ 18:00 EDT-20:00 EDT: CME reopen and Asia handoff can reset tone
      ā€¢ 2:00 EDT-5:00 EDT: Europe often extends or reverses overnight momentum
      ā€¢ 8:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: US macro releases and ETF flows matter most
      ā€¢ Weekend moves can detach from ETF and equity confirmation

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šŸ“† 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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  SWING BIAS:             ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING SIZE:             ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING THESIS:           ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING ENTRY:            ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING INVALIDATION:     ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING CATALYST WINDOW:  ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

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