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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GLD)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Mon, Apr 27, 2026, 9:13 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-04-27
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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GVZ: 25.88 (+0.00) š”
GLD Term: CONTANGO (+54.8%) ā
āā 20d RV 26.3 sits below 60d RV 40.7: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GLD: $432.85 (Gap: -0.09%) āŖ
Weekly Momentum: GLD: -44.4 (1w: -96.0) strong bear š“ | SATY -10.0 ST +50 EMA -50 D -24.4
Dollar: UUP: 27.48 (5d: +0.12) š“
10Y Yield: TNX: 43.10 (5d: +0.64) š“
Real-Rate Proxy: TIP/IEF: 1.170 (5d: +0.68%) š¢
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 05/01 08:30: Jobs Report
š“ Wed 05/06 08:30: FOMC Decision
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-04-13 Mon 434.77 436.22 431.63 435.36 1.06 + 0.13 5.5 NORMAL
2026-04-14 Tue 439.32 445.18 439.02 445.09 1.40 + 1.31 8.7 NORMAL
2026-04-15 Wed 442.88 443.74 439.60 440.46 0.93 -0.55 6.5 LOW VOL
2026-04-16 Thu 442.15 442.98 438.18 440.08 1.09 -0.47 5.4 NORMAL
2026-04-17 Fri 445.65 448.70 445.32 445.93 0.76 + 0.06 9.7 DEAD
2026-04-20 Mon 443.13 443.42 440.05 442.09 0.76 -0.23 8.5 LOW VOL
2026-04-21 Tue 438.55 440.25 428.71 429.57 2.63 -2.05 9.5 HIGH VOL
2026-04-22 Wed 436.27 437.17 433.78 435.26 0.78 -0.23 5.2 LOW VOL
2026-04-23 Thu 433.96 435.29 428.22 431.04 1.63 -0.67 5.0 HIGH VOL
2026-04-24 Fri 431.33 435.28 430.65 433.25 1.07 + 0.44 5.9 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.21%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.62%
Avg Volume: 8.7M
Last Day Volume: 5.9M (68% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: LOW VOL ā HIGH VOL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: CHOP ā DRIFT ā DRIFT
Range trend: 0.78% ā 1.07%
š EXPECTED REGIME: NORMAL ā
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BEARISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
GVZ Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
GLD Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GLD downside setups on bounces
⢠Press winners when confirmation stays intact
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāā ā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā ā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāā
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