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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GLD)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Wed, May 27, 2026, 9:28 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-05-27
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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GVZ: 24.27 (+0.00) š”
GLD Term: CONTANGO (+35.3%) ā
āā 20d RV 20.8 sits below 60d RV 28.1: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GLD: $411.22 (Gap: -0.63%) š“
Weekly Momentum: GLD: -85.7 (1w: +23.2) strong bear š“ | SATY -20.1 ST +50 EMA -50 D -40.0
Dollar: UUP: 27.75 (5d: +0.05) š“
10Y Yield: TNX: 44.93 (5d: -1.30) š¢
Real-Rate Proxy: TIP/IEF: 1.175 (5d: -0.55%) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-11 Mon 434.18 436.04 432.21 434.65 0.88 + 0.11 5.6 LOW VOL
2026-05-12 Tue 430.70 432.98 425.85 432.93 1.66 + 0.52 6.7 HIGH VOL
2026-05-13 Wed 430.52 432.49 428.75 430.50 0.87 -0.00 4.2 LOW VOL
2026-05-14 Thu 430.30 431.54 427.10 427.21 1.03 -0.72 4.0 NORMAL
2026-05-15 Fri 417.64 419.25 414.12 417.29 1.23 -0.08 9.4 NORMAL
2026-05-18 Mon 419.82 420.93 416.06 418.43 1.16 -0.33 5.6 NORMAL
2026-05-19 Tue 412.45 414.47 409.88 411.50 1.11 -0.23 5.4 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 412.14 417.99 410.08 417.40 1.92 + 1.28 6.0 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 413.14 418.42 411.95 416.99 1.57 + 0.93 4.7 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 415.17 415.68 412.00 413.82 0.89 -0.33 5.5 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.23%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.45%
Avg Volume: 6.0M
Last Day Volume: 5.5M (92% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 5 days (50%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: HIGH VOL ā NORMAL ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā BULL ā DRIFT
Range trend: 1.92% ā 0.89%
š Range contracting: Compression building...
š§ BASELINE REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is running one regime hotter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: MIXED/CHOP āļø
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
GVZ Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Contracting āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā
GLD Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
ā” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (51% probability):
⢠Conditions may shift from the current regime
⢠Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
⢠Watch the first 30 minutes closely
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠No strong directional bias
⢠Quick exits and tighter targets make more sense
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āā āāā āā ā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā ā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāā
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