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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GLD)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Thu, May 28, 2026, 9:03 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-05-28
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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GVZ: 24.47 (+0.00) š”
GLD Term: CONTANGO (+35.0%) ā
āā 20d RV 20.7 sits below 60d RV 28.0: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GLD: $402.81 (Gap: -2.70%) š“
Weekly Momentum: GLD: -38.9 (1w: +46.9) strong bear š“ | SATY -11.0 ST +50 EMA -50 D -18.1
Dollar: UUP: 27.75 (5d: -0.04) š¢
10Y Yield: TNX: 44.81 (5d: -1.86) š¢
Real-Rate Proxy: TIP/IEF: 1.176 (5d: -0.59%) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-12 Tue 430.70 432.98 425.85 432.93 1.66 + 0.52 6.7 HIGH VOL
2026-05-13 Wed 430.52 432.49 428.75 430.50 0.87 -0.00 4.2 LOW VOL
2026-05-14 Thu 430.30 431.54 427.10 427.21 1.03 -0.72 4.0 NORMAL
2026-05-15 Fri 417.64 419.25 414.12 417.29 1.23 -0.08 9.4 NORMAL
2026-05-18 Mon 419.82 420.93 416.06 418.43 1.16 -0.33 5.6 NORMAL
2026-05-19 Tue 412.45 414.47 409.88 411.50 1.11 -0.23 5.4 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 412.14 417.99 410.08 417.40 1.92 + 1.28 6.0 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 413.14 418.42 411.95 416.99 1.57 + 0.93 4.7 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 415.17 415.68 412.00 413.82 0.89 -0.33 5.5 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 415.16 415.98 411.50 414.00 1.08 -0.28 5.1 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.25%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.47%
Avg Volume: 6.0M
Last Day Volume: 5.1M (85% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 6 days (60%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: NORMAL ā LOW VOL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā DRIFT ā DRIFT
Range trend: 1.57% ā 1.08%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BEARISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
GVZ Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
GLD Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Mixed āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GLD downside setups on bounces
⢠Press winners when confirmation stays intact
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā ā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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