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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GLD)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Fri, May 29, 2026, 4:24 PM EDT
Saved session: post-close
Report date: 2026-05-29
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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GVZ: 24.91 (+0.08) š”
GLD Term: CONTANGO (+33.5%) ā
āā 20d RV 20.0 sits below 60d RV 26.7: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GLD: $417.12 (Gap: +0.00%) āŖ
Weekly Momentum: GLD: -19.5 (1w: +66.2) strong bear š“ | SATY -4.0 ST +50 EMA -50 D -15.1
Dollar: UUP: 27.70 (5d: -0.03) š¢
10Y Yield: TNX: 44.55 (5d: -1.17) š¢
Real-Rate Proxy: TIP/IEF: 1.176 (5d: -0.12%) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-15 Fri 417.64 419.25 414.12 417.29 1.23 -0.08 9.4 NORMAL
2026-05-18 Mon 419.82 420.93 416.06 418.43 1.16 -0.33 5.6 NORMAL
2026-05-19 Tue 412.45 414.47 409.88 411.50 1.11 -0.23 5.4 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 412.14 417.99 410.08 417.40 1.92 + 1.28 6.0 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 413.14 418.42 411.95 416.99 1.57 + 0.93 4.7 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 415.17 415.68 412.00 413.82 0.89 -0.33 5.5 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 415.16 415.98 411.50 414.00 1.08 -0.28 5.1 NORMAL
2026-05-27 Wed 404.33 409.25 404.30 408.49 1.22 + 1.03 6.6 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 406.48 414.51 405.41 412.77 2.24 + 1.55 7.2 HIGH VOL
2026-05-29 Fri 415.62 421.82 415.08 417.12 1.62 + 0.36 7.6 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.40%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.64%
Avg Volume: 6.0M
Last Day Volume: 7.6M (127% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 7 days (70%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: NORMAL ā HIGH VOL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā BULL ā DRIFT
Range trend: 1.22% ā 1.62%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: LOW VOL ā ļø
āā Live tape is running one regime quieter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: MIXED/CHOP āļø
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
GVZ Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
GLD Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Tighter moves, more T4/T5/T6 exits
⢠Options may struggle to hit 20%+
⢠More breakeven and small gains likely
⢠Be more selective on entries
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠75-100% of normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠No strong directional bias
⢠Quick exits and tighter targets make more sense
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāā āā ā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā ā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā ā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā ā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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