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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GLD)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Mon, Jun 1, 2026, 11:21 AM EDT
Saved session: post-open
Report date: 2026-06-01
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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GVZ: 25.97 (+1.06) š”
GLD Term: CONTANGO (+33.5%) ā
āā 20d RV 20.0 sits below 60d RV 26.7: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GLD: $409.89 (Gap: -1.73%) š“
Weekly Momentum: GLD: -19.5 (1w: +66.2) strong bear š“ | SATY -4.0 ST +50 EMA -50 D -15.1
Dollar: UUP: 27.66 (5d: -0.07) š¢
10Y Yield: TNX: 44.53 (5d: -1.33) š¢
Real-Rate Proxy: TIP/IEF: 1.175 (5d: -0.14%) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-15 Fri 417.64 419.25 414.12 417.29 1.23 -0.08 9.4 NORMAL
2026-05-18 Mon 419.82 420.93 416.06 418.43 1.16 -0.33 5.6 NORMAL
2026-05-19 Tue 412.45 414.47 409.88 411.50 1.11 -0.23 5.4 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 412.14 417.99 410.08 417.40 1.92 + 1.28 6.0 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 413.14 418.42 411.95 416.99 1.57 + 0.93 4.7 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 415.17 415.68 412.00 413.82 0.89 -0.33 5.5 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 415.16 415.98 411.50 414.00 1.08 -0.28 5.1 NORMAL
2026-05-27 Wed 404.33 409.25 404.30 408.49 1.22 + 1.03 6.6 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 406.48 414.51 405.41 412.77 2.24 + 1.55 7.2 HIGH VOL
2026-05-29 Fri 415.62 421.82 415.08 417.12 1.62 + 0.36 7.7 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.40%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.64%
Avg Volume: 6.0M
Last Day Volume: 7.7M (128% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 7 days (70%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: NORMAL ā HIGH VOL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā BULL ā DRIFT
Range trend: 1.22% ā 1.62%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: MIXED/CHOP āļø
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
GVZ Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
GLD Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Mixed āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠No strong directional bias
⢠Quick exits and tighter targets make more sense
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāā ā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āā āāā āā ā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā ā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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