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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GLD)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Tue, Jun 2, 2026, 9:02 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-06-02
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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GVZ: 25.64 (+0.00) š”
GLD Term: CONTANGO (+33.5%) ā
āā 20d RV 20.0 sits below 60d RV 26.7: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GLD: $416.18 (Gap: -0.23%) š“
Weekly Momentum: GLD: -19.5 (1w: +66.2) strong bear š“ | SATY -4.0 ST +50 EMA -50 D -15.1
Dollar: UUP: 27.76 (5d: -0.01) š¢
10Y Yield: TNX: 44.75 (5d: -0.83) š¢
Real-Rate Proxy: TIP/IEF: 1.168 (5d: -0.67%) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Tomorrow 08:15: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
š” Thu 06/04 08:30: Unemployment Claims
š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Non-Farm Employment Change
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-15 Fri 417.64 419.25 414.12 417.29 1.23 -0.08 9.4 NORMAL
2026-05-18 Mon 419.82 420.93 416.06 418.43 1.16 -0.33 5.6 NORMAL
2026-05-19 Tue 412.45 414.47 409.88 411.50 1.11 -0.23 5.4 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 412.14 417.99 410.08 417.40 1.92 + 1.28 6.0 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 413.14 418.42 411.95 416.99 1.57 + 0.93 4.7 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 415.17 415.68 412.00 413.82 0.89 -0.33 5.5 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 415.16 415.98 411.50 414.00 1.08 -0.28 5.1 NORMAL
2026-05-27 Wed 404.33 409.25 404.30 408.49 1.22 + 1.03 6.6 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 406.48 414.51 405.41 412.77 2.24 + 1.55 7.2 HIGH VOL
2026-05-29 Fri 415.62 421.82 415.08 417.12 1.62 + 0.36 7.7 NORMAL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.40%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.64%
Avg Volume: 6.0M
Last Day Volume: 7.7M (128% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 7 days (70%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: NORMAL ā HIGH VOL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā BULL ā DRIFT
Range trend: 1.22% ā 1.62%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: MIXED/CHOP āļø
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
GVZ Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
GLD Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Regime Mixed āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠No strong directional bias
⢠Quick exits and tighter targets make more sense
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāā ā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āā āāā āā ā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā ā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāā
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