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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GLD)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Fri, Jun 5, 2026, 9:14 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-06-05
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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GVZ: 23.87 (+0.00) š”
GLD Term: CONTANGO (+37.2%) ā
āā 20d RV 19.3 sits below 60d RV 26.5: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GLD: $409.44 (Gap: +0.38%) š¢
Weekly Momentum: GLD: -75.5 (1w: -56.0) strong bear š“ | SATY -21.4 ST +50 EMA -50 D -29.1
Dollar: UUP: 27.84 (5d: +0.14) š“
10Y Yield: TNX: 44.77 (5d: +0.22) š“
Real-Rate Proxy: TIP/IEF: 1.166 (5d: -0.82%) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-20 Wed 412.14 417.99 410.08 417.40 1.92 + 1.28 6.0 HIGH VOL
2026-05-21 Thu 413.14 418.42 411.95 416.99 1.57 + 0.93 4.7 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 415.17 415.68 412.00 413.82 0.89 -0.33 5.5 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 415.16 415.98 411.50 414.00 1.08 -0.28 5.1 NORMAL
2026-05-27 Wed 404.33 409.25 404.30 408.49 1.22 + 1.03 6.6 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 406.48 414.51 405.41 412.77 2.24 + 1.55 7.2 HIGH VOL
2026-05-29 Fri 415.62 421.82 415.08 417.12 1.62 + 0.36 7.7 NORMAL
2026-06-01 Mon 409.86 412.61 408.24 411.26 1.07 + 0.34 6.2 NORMAL
2026-06-02 Tue 414.08 414.40 411.10 411.95 0.80 -0.51 3.8 LOW VOL
2026-06-03 Wed 408.38 409.38 406.23 407.87 0.77 -0.12 5.0 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.32%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.67%
Avg Volume: 5.9M
Last Day Volume: 5.0M (85% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 5 days (50%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: NORMAL ā LOW VOL ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: DRIFT ā BEAR ā CHOP
Range trend: 1.07% ā 0.77%
š„ SQUEEZE DETECTED: Range at 10th percentile (TIGHT)
š§ BASELINE REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is running one regime hotter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BEARISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
GVZ Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Squeeze āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā
GLD Term āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
ā” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (59% probability):
⢠Conditions may shift from the current regime
⢠Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
⢠Watch the first 30 minutes closely
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GLD downside setups on bounces
⢠Press winners when confirmation stays intact
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā ā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
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