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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GOOGL)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT
Saved session: post-close
Report date: 2026-04-28
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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HV20: 28.44 (-0.10) š”
Vol Structure: FLAT (+2.4%) āŖ
āā 20d RV 28.4 is roughly in line with 60d RV 29.1: the realized-vol curve is steady.
GOOGL: $349.78 (Gap: +0.00%) āŖ
Weekly Momentum: GOOGL: +78.9 (1w: -27.3) strong bull š¢ | SATY +33.2 ST +50 EMA +50 D -15.1
RS vs SPY: GOOGL/SPY: 0.490 (5d: +2.89%) š¢
Mag 7 Breadth: 7/7 above 20d (5d: +0.0pp) š¢
Comm Services: XLC/SPY: 0.162 (5d: -3.36%) š“
Model note: Mag 7 stock model tracks GOOGL/SPY leadership plus seven-stock breadth across AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL/META/MSFT/NVDA/TSLA.
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 05/01 08:30: Jobs Report
š“ Wed 05/06 08:30: FOMC Decision
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-04-15 Wed 332.89 337.48 330.90 337.12 1.98 + 1.27 24.9 LOW VOL
2026-04-16 Thu 338.75 339.88 334.52 336.02 1.58 -0.81 20.5 DEAD
2026-04-17 Fri 337.65 342.32 336.24 341.68 1.80 + 1.19 25.6 LOW VOL
2026-04-20 Mon 340.75 341.40 336.61 337.42 1.41 -0.98 18.8 DEAD
2026-04-21 Tue 337.69 339.34 331.35 332.29 2.37 -1.60 23.1 NORMAL
2026-04-22 Wed 337.02 339.82 335.17 339.32 1.38 + 0.68 20.3 DEAD
2026-04-23 Thu 341.18 341.96 336.18 338.89 1.69 -0.67 18.7 LOW VOL
2026-04-24 Fri 338.73 345.27 335.39 344.40 2.92 + 1.68 26.4 HIGH VOL
2026-04-27 Mon 345.98 353.18 342.73 350.34 3.02 + 1.26 28.6 HIGH VOL
2026-04-28 Tue 348.55 352.42 346.12 349.78 1.81 + 0.35 27.0 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 1.99%
Avg Absolute Move: 1.05%
Avg Volume: 25.0M
Last Day Volume: 27.0M (108% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: HIGH VOL ā HIGH VOL ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā BULL ā CHOP
Range trend: 2.92% ā 1.81%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: HIGH VOL š„
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is running one regime quieter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BULLISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
HV20 Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Vol Structure āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GOOGL long setups on pullbacks
⢠Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā ā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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