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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GOOGL)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Thu, May 28, 2026, 9:03 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-05-28
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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HV20: 42.73 (-0.06) š“
Vol Structure: BACKWARDATION (-18.5%) ā ļø
āā 20d RV 42.7 is above 60d RV 34.8: near-term volatility is outrunning the medium-term baseline.
GOOGL: $387.56 (Gap: -0.34%) š“
Weekly Momentum: GOOGL: +53.7 (1w: +45.2) strong bull š¢ | SATY +6.0 ST +50 EMA +50 D +14.8
RS vs SPY: GOOGL/SPY: 0.518 (5d: -3.59%) š“
Mag 7 Breadth: 4/7 above 20d (5d: -14.3pp) š“
Comm Services: XLC/SPY: 0.155 (5d: -1.88%) š“
Model note: Mag 7 stock model tracks GOOGL/SPY leadership plus seven-stock breadth across AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL/META/MSFT/NVDA/TSLA.
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-12 Tue 387.34 388.52 382.77 387.35 1.48 + 0.00 26.0 DEAD
2026-05-13 Wed 385.60 403.70 385.00 402.62 4.85 + 4.42 28.1 HIGH VOL
2026-05-14 Thu 397.28 402.93 395.84 401.07 1.78 + 0.95 21.1 LOW VOL
2026-05-15 Fri 396.31 399.54 393.18 396.78 1.60 + 0.12 20.3 LOW VOL
2026-05-18 Mon 395.69 408.61 394.53 396.94 3.56 + 0.32 26.8 HIGH VOL
2026-05-19 Tue 396.96 397.15 386.11 387.66 2.78 -2.34 39.5 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 387.70 393.86 382.90 388.91 2.83 + 0.31 31.7 NORMAL
2026-05-21 Thu 385.70 392.50 383.02 387.66 2.46 + 0.51 24.9 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 387.35 388.74 381.77 382.97 1.80 -1.13 20.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 384.51 389.26 382.60 388.88 1.73 + 1.14 27.7 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 2.49%
Avg Absolute Move: 1.12%
Avg Volume: 29.5M
Last Day Volume: 27.7M (94% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: NORMAL ā LOW VOL ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: DRIFT ā BEAR ā BULL
Range trend: 2.46% ā 1.73%
š Range contracting: Compression building...
š§ BASELINE REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is running one regime hotter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: MIXED/CHOP āļø
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
HV20 Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Contracting āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā
Vol Structure āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
ā” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (63% probability):
⢠Conditions may shift from the current regime
⢠Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
⢠Watch the first 30 minutes closely
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠No strong directional bias
⢠Quick exits and tighter targets make more sense
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āā ā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāā
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