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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GOOGL)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Fri, May 29, 2026, 4:24 PM EDT
Saved session: post-close
Report date: 2026-05-29
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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HV20: 25.99 (-16.67) š”
Vol Structure: CONTANGO (+34.5%) ā
āā 20d RV 26.0 sits below 60d RV 34.9: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GOOGL: $380.34 (Gap: +0.00%) āŖ
Weekly Momentum: GOOGL: -22.8 (1w: -31.2) strong bear š“ | SATY -9.8 ST -50 EMA +50 D +5.5
RS vs SPY: GOOGL/SPY: 0.517 (5d: -1.46%) š“
Mag 7 Breadth: 5/7 above 20d (5d: +0.0pp) š¢
Comm Services: XLC/SPY: 0.155 (5d: -1.29%) š“
Model note: Mag 7 stock model tracks GOOGL/SPY leadership plus seven-stock breadth across AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL/META/MSFT/NVDA/TSLA.
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-15 Fri 396.31 399.54 393.18 396.78 1.60 + 0.12 20.3 LOW VOL
2026-05-18 Mon 395.69 408.61 394.53 396.94 3.56 + 0.32 26.8 HIGH VOL
2026-05-19 Tue 396.96 397.15 386.11 387.66 2.78 -2.34 39.5 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 387.70 393.86 382.90 388.91 2.83 + 0.31 31.7 NORMAL
2026-05-21 Thu 385.70 392.50 383.02 387.66 2.46 + 0.51 24.9 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 387.35 388.74 381.77 382.97 1.80 -1.13 20.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 384.51 389.26 382.60 388.88 1.73 + 1.14 27.7 LOW VOL
2026-05-27 Wed 386.67 393.88 385.90 388.83 2.06 + 0.56 23.1 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 388.00 391.87 385.16 390.13 1.73 + 0.55 24.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-29 Fri 385.24 385.24 378.46 380.34 1.76 -1.27 43.4 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 2.23%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.82%
Avg Volume: 27.3M
Last Day Volume: 43.4M (159% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 5 days (50%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: NORMAL ā LOW VOL ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: DRIFT ā DRIFT ā BEAR
Range trend: 2.06% ā 1.76%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: LOW VOL ā ļø
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BEARISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
HV20 Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Vol Structure āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Mixed āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Tighter moves, more T4/T5/T6 exits
⢠Options may struggle to hit 20%+
⢠More breakeven and small gains likely
⢠Be more selective on entries
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠75-100% of normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GOOGL downside setups on bounces
⢠Press winners when confirmation stays intact
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāā ā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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