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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GOOGL)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Mon, Jun 1, 2026, 9:05 AM EDT
Saved session: pre-open
Report date: 2026-06-01
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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HV20: 42.66 (-0.03) š“
Vol Structure: BACKWARDATION (-19.3%) ā ļø
āā 20d RV 42.7 is above 60d RV 34.4: near-term volatility is outrunning the medium-term baseline.
GOOGL: $379.35 (Gap: -2.76%) š“
Weekly Momentum: GOOGL: +58.5 (1w: +50.1) strong bull š¢ | SATY +8.1 ST +50 EMA +50 D +14.8
RS vs SPY: GOOGL/SPY: 0.517 (5d: -1.46%) š“
Mag 7 Breadth: 5/7 above 20d (5d: +0.0pp) š¢
Comm Services: XLC/SPY: 0.153 (5d: -2.17%) š“
Model note: Mag 7 stock model tracks GOOGL/SPY leadership plus seven-stock breadth across AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL/META/MSFT/NVDA/TSLA.
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-14 Thu 397.28 402.93 395.84 401.07 1.78 + 0.95 21.1 LOW VOL
2026-05-15 Fri 396.31 399.54 393.18 396.78 1.60 + 0.12 20.3 LOW VOL
2026-05-18 Mon 395.69 408.61 394.53 396.94 3.56 + 0.32 26.8 HIGH VOL
2026-05-19 Tue 396.96 397.15 386.11 387.66 2.78 -2.34 39.5 NORMAL
2026-05-20 Wed 387.70 393.86 382.90 388.91 2.83 + 0.31 31.7 NORMAL
2026-05-21 Thu 385.70 392.50 383.02 387.66 2.46 + 0.51 24.9 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 387.35 388.74 381.77 382.97 1.80 -1.13 20.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 384.51 389.26 382.60 388.88 1.73 + 1.14 27.7 LOW VOL
2026-05-27 Wed 386.67 393.88 385.90 388.83 2.06 + 0.56 23.1 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 388.00 391.87 385.16 390.13 1.73 + 0.55 24.4 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 2.23%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.79%
Avg Volume: 28.7M
Last Day Volume: 24.4M (85% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 5 days (50%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: LOW VOL ā NORMAL ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: BULL ā DRIFT ā DRIFT
Range trend: 1.73% ā 1.73%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is running one regime hotter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BULLISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
HV20 Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Vol Structure āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
ā” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (59% probability):
⢠Conditions may shift from the current regime
⢠Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
⢠Watch the first 30 minutes closely
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GOOGL long setups on pullbacks
⢠Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā ā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāā ā āāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āā āāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āā āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāā ā āāāāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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