================================================================================
VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GOOGL)
================================================================================
REPORT REFRESH
----------------------------------------
Saved refresh: Wed, Jun 3, 2026, 4:14 PM EDT
Saved session: post-close
Report date: 2026-06-03
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
----------------------------------------
HV20: 28.78 (-0.59) š”
Vol Structure: CONTANGO (+24.2%) ā
āā 20d RV 28.8 sits below 60d RV 35.7: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GOOGL: $358.99 (Gap: +0.00%) āŖ
Weekly Momentum: GOOGL: -109.5 (1w: -86.6) strong bear š“ | SATY -43.6 ST -50 EMA -50 D +9.2
RS vs SPY: GOOGL/SPY: 0.476 (5d: -8.05%) š“
Mag 7 Breadth: 3/7 above 20d (5d: -14.3pp) š“
Comm Services: XLC/SPY: 0.150 (5d: -2.88%) š“
Model note: Mag 7 stock model tracks GOOGL/SPY leadership plus seven-stock breadth across AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL/META/MSFT/NVDA/TSLA.
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
-------------------------------------------------------
š“ Fri 06/05 08:30: Jobs Report
š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-05-20 Wed 387.70 393.86 382.90 388.91 2.83 + 0.31 31.7 NORMAL
2026-05-21 Thu 385.70 392.50 383.02 387.66 2.46 + 0.51 24.9 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 387.35 388.74 381.77 382.97 1.80 -1.13 20.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 384.51 389.26 382.60 388.88 1.73 + 1.14 27.7 LOW VOL
2026-05-27 Wed 386.67 393.88 385.90 388.83 2.06 + 0.56 23.1 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 388.00 391.87 385.16 390.13 1.73 + 0.55 24.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-29 Fri 385.24 385.24 378.46 380.34 1.76 -1.27 44.4 LOW VOL
2026-06-01 Mon 376.52 378.56 373.52 376.37 1.34 -0.04 28.7 DEAD
2026-06-02 Tue 366.59 373.54 358.44 361.85 4.12 -1.29 50.4 HIGH VOL
2026-06-03 Wed 362.03 366.45 358.08 358.99 2.31 -0.84 52.6 NORMAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
š SUMMARY STATISTICS
----------------------------------------
Avg Daily Range: 2.21%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.76%
Avg Volume: 29.9M
Last Day Volume: 52.6M (176% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
================================================================================
šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
================================================================================
Last 3 days regime: DEAD ā HIGH VOL ā NORMAL
Last 3 days direction: CHOP ā BEAR ā DRIFT
Range trend: 1.34% ā 2.31%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: NORMAL ā
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BEARISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
HV20 Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Vol Structure āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
================================================================================
š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
================================================================================
š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
ā” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (53% probability):
⢠Conditions may shift from the current regime
⢠Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
⢠Watch the first 30 minutes closely
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GOOGL downside setups on bounces
⢠Press winners when confirmation stays intact
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
================================================================================
š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
================================================================================
SWING BIAS: āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāā ā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāā
================================================================================