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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (GOOGL)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Fri, Jun 5, 2026, 11:14 AM EDT
Saved session: post-open
Report date: 2026-06-05
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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HV20: 30.62 (+1.84) š”
Vol Structure: CONTANGO (+18.9%) ā
āā 20d RV 30.6 sits below 60d RV 36.4: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
GOOGL: $369.04 (Gap: -0.85%) š“
Weekly Momentum: GOOGL: -37.5 (1w: -14.6) strong bear š“ | SATY -19.7 ST -50 EMA -50 D +24.4
RS vs SPY: GOOGL/SPY: 0.492 (5d: -4.91%) š“
Mag 7 Breadth: 3/7 above 20d (5d: -28.6pp) š“
Comm Services: XLC/SPY: 0.149 (5d: -3.37%) š“
Model note: Mag 7 stock model tracks GOOGL/SPY leadership plus seven-stock breadth across AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL/META/MSFT/NVDA/TSLA.
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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š“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-05-21 Thu 385.70 392.50 383.02 387.66 2.46 + 0.51 24.9 NORMAL
2026-05-22 Fri 387.35 388.74 381.77 382.97 1.80 -1.13 20.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-26 Tue 384.51 389.26 382.60 388.88 1.73 + 1.14 27.7 LOW VOL
2026-05-27 Wed 386.67 393.88 385.90 388.83 2.06 + 0.56 23.1 NORMAL
2026-05-28 Thu 388.00 391.87 385.16 390.13 1.73 + 0.55 24.4 LOW VOL
2026-05-29 Fri 385.24 385.24 378.46 380.34 1.76 -1.27 44.4 LOW VOL
2026-06-01 Mon 376.52 378.56 373.52 376.37 1.34 -0.04 28.7 DEAD
2026-06-02 Tue 366.59 373.54 358.44 361.85 4.12 -1.29 50.4 HIGH VOL
2026-06-03 Wed 362.03 366.45 358.08 358.99 2.31 -0.84 55.4 NORMAL
2026-06-04 Thu 358.90 373.25 358.21 372.19 4.19 + 3.70 44.1 HIGH VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 2.35%
Avg Absolute Move: 1.10%
Avg Volume: 30.7M
Last Day Volume: 44.1M (144% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 3 days (30%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 1 days (10%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: HIGH VOL ā NORMAL ā HIGH VOL
Last 3 days direction: BEAR ā DRIFT ā BULL
Range trend: 4.12% ā 4.19%
š§ BASELINE REGIME: HIGH VOL š„
š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL ā
āā Live tape is running one regime quieter than the completed-session baseline.
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: BEARISH š
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
HV20 Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Vol Structure āāāāāāāāāā āāā āā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Balanced conditions for all tiers
⢠Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
⢠Good trade frequency expected
⢠Standard tier logic should work well
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠100% normal size
ā” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (51% probability):
⢠Conditions may shift from the current regime
⢠Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
⢠Watch the first 30 minutes closely
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠Favor GOOGL downside setups on bounces
⢠Press winners when confirmation stays intact
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā āāā āāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāā āā āāāāāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāā āāāāā āā ā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āā āā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāā āā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāā
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