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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (SPY)
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REPORT REFRESH
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Saved refresh: Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 5:17 PM EDT
Saved session: post-close
Report date: 2026-04-24
š” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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VIX: 18.71 (-0.60) š”
VIX Term: CONTANGO (+13.8%) ā
āā Normal term structure
SPY: $713.94 (Gap: +0.00%) āŖ
Weekly Momentum: SPY: +105.2 (1w: -42.6) strong bull š¢ | SATY +47.8 ST +50 EMA +50 D -20.7
Breadth: RSP/SPY: 0.286 (5d: -0.06%) š“
Credit: HYG/LQD: 0.734 (5d: -0.06%) š“
10Y Yield: $TNX: 43.23 (5d: +0.14) š“
š
UPCOMING EVENTS
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ā
No remaining future events in this saved report
š LAST 10 TRADING DAYS
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Date Day Open High Low Close Range% Move% Vol(M) Regime
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2026-04-13 Mon 677.41 686.30 676.58 686.10 1.43 + 1.28 54.2 HIGH VOL
2026-04-14 Tue 687.69 694.58 687.66 694.46 1.01 + 0.98 63.5 NORMAL
2026-04-15 Wed 695.26 700.28 694.20 699.94 0.87 + 0.67 58.2 NORMAL
2026-04-16 Thu 701.06 702.78 698.53 701.66 0.61 + 0.09 50.0 LOW VOL
2026-04-17 Fri 706.14 712.39 705.76 710.14 0.94 + 0.57 70.7 NORMAL
2026-04-20 Mon 708.78 709.91 706.14 708.72 0.53 -0.01 43.5 DEAD
2026-04-21 Tue 710.28 711.27 702.64 704.08 1.22 -0.87 58.9 NORMAL
2026-04-22 Wed 709.15 711.45 708.22 711.21 0.46 + 0.29 42.5 DEAD
2026-04-23 Thu 709.50 712.36 702.28 708.45 1.42 -0.15 56.2 HIGH VOL
2026-04-24 Fri 710.75 714.47 709.01 713.94 0.77 + 0.45 45.1 LOW VOL
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š SUMMARY STATISTICS
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Avg Daily Range: 0.93%
Avg Absolute Move: 0.54%
Avg Volume: 68.3M
Last Day Volume: 45.1M (66% of avg)
š REGIME BREAKDOWN:
NORMAL āāāāāāāāāā 4 days (40%)
DEAD āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
HIGH VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
LOW VOL āāāāāāāāāā 2 days (20%)
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šÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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Last 3 days regime: DEAD ā HIGH VOL ā LOW VOL
Last 3 days direction: DRIFT ā CHOP ā DRIFT
Range trend: 0.46% ā 0.77%
š EXPECTED REGIME: LOW VOL ā ļø
š EXPECTED DIRECTION: MIXED/CHOP āļø
ā” CONFIDENCE: āāā ā
š REGIME CHANGE PROB: āāā ā
CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
Regime Consistency āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Range Stability āāāāāāāāāā āāā
VIX Alignment āāāāāāāāāā āāā
Volume Health āāāāāāāāāā āāā
REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
Range Stable āāāāāāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāāāā
VIX Term āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā
Event Risk āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā
Regime Instability āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāā āāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā
Cross-Asset Stress āāāāāāāāāā ā āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā
š STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
⢠Tighter moves, more T4/T5/T6 exits
⢠Options may struggle to hit 20%+
⢠More breakeven and small gains likely
⢠Be more selective on entries
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š TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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š° POSITION SIZING:
⢠75-100% of normal size
šÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
⢠No strong directional bias
⢠Quick exits and tighter targets make more sense
ā° SESSION TIMING:
⢠9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
⢠10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
⢠11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
⢠2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window
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š 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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SWING BIAS: āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāā
SWING SIZE: āāāāāā āā āāāāāā āāāāā āā āāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā
SWING THESIS: āāāāā āāā āāāā āāā āāāāāāāā āā āāā āā ā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā ā āāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā
SWING ENTRY: āāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāā āā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāā āā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāāāā
SWING INVALIDATION: āāāāāāāāāā āāā āāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāā āāāā āāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāā āāāāāā āā āāāāā āāāāāāāāāāā
SWING CATALYST WINDOW: āāāāāāāāā āāāāā āāāā āā āāāāāāāā āāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāāāā āāāā āāā āāāāā āāāāāā āāā āāā āāāā āāāāāāā āā āāāāāāāāāāāāāā āāāāāā āāāāā āāā āāāāāāāāā
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