free preview: direction, regime, and archive stay open. confidence, regime-change internals, and swing-plan values are masked until you unlock the desk.

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VOLATILITY REGIME ANALYSIS - Enhanced Multi-Factor (YM)
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REPORT REFRESH
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  Saved refresh: Thu, Jun 4, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT
  Saved session: post-open
  Report date:   2026-06-04
  Table note:    Completed CME sessions; Friday can remain the latest row after a weekend refresh.
šŸ“” CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT
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  VXD:        15.20 (-0.34) šŸŸ¢
  YM Term:   CONTANGO (+28.0%) āœ…
              ā””ā”€ 20d RV 11.9 sits below 60d RV 15.2: near-term volatility is compressed versus the medium-term baseline.
  YM:        51603.00 (Session: +1.57%) šŸŸ¢
  Contract:   /YMM26
  Weekly Momentum:    YM: +154.7 (1w: +32.7) strong bull šŸŸ¢ | SATY +32.1 ST +50 EMA +50 D +50.0
  Industrials:    XLI/SPY: 0.231 (5d: -0.64%) šŸ”“
  Financials:    XLF/SPY: 0.067 (5d: -1.57%) šŸ”“
  10Y Yield:    $TNX: 44.91 (5d: +0.10) šŸ”“
  Model note:  Using Schwab root /YM, which auto-resolves to the active front-month E-mini Dow contract.

šŸ“… UPCOMING EVENTS
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  šŸ”“ Tomorrow 08:30: Jobs Report
  šŸ”“ Wed 06/10 08:30: CPI

šŸ“Š LAST 10 COMPLETED CME SESSIONS
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Date         Day       Open      High       Low     Close  Range%   Move%  Vol(M) Regime    
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2026-05-21   Thu   50040.00  50470.00  49774.00  50404.00    1.39 +  0.73     0.1 NORMAL    
2026-05-22   Fri   50402.00  50920.00  50402.00  50623.00    1.03 +  0.44     0.1 LOW VOL   
2026-05-26   Tue   50776.00  51209.00  50425.00  50520.00    1.54  -0.50     0.1 HIGH VOL  
2026-05-27   Wed   50508.00  50896.00  50500.00  50788.00    0.78 +  0.55     0.1 DEAD      
2026-05-28   Thu   50784.00  50855.00  50386.00  50758.00    0.92  -0.05     0.1 LOW VOL   
2026-05-29   Fri   50750.00  51140.00  50704.00  51053.00    0.86 +  0.60     0.1 LOW VOL   
2026-06-01   Mon   51128.00  51384.00  50824.00  51106.00    1.10  -0.04     0.1 NORMAL    
2026-06-02   Tue   51073.00  51443.00  50841.00  51429.00    1.18 +  0.70     0.1 NORMAL    
2026-06-03   Wed   51396.00  51418.00  50738.00  50760.00    1.32  -1.24     0.1 NORMAL    
2026-06-04   Thu   50774.00  51628.00  50756.00  51605.00    1.72 +  1.64     0.1 HIGH VOL  
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šŸ“ˆ SUMMARY STATISTICS
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  Avg Daily Range:    1.18%
  Avg Absolute Move:  0.65%
  Avg Volume:         0.1M contracts
  Last Day Volume:    0.1M contracts (77% of avg)

šŸ“‰ REGIME BREAKDOWN:
  NORMAL     ā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 4 days (40%)
  LOW VOL    ā–ˆā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 3 days (30%)
  HIGH VOL   ā–ˆā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 2 days (20%)
  DEAD       ā–ˆā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ā–‘ 1 days (10%)

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šŸŽÆ TODAY'S PREDICTION
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  Last 3 days regime:     NORMAL ā†’ NORMAL ā†’ HIGH VOL
  Last 3 days direction:  BULL ā†’ BEAR ā†’ BULL
  Range trend:            1.18% ā†’ 1.72%
  šŸ“ˆ Range expanding:     Volatility increasing

  šŸ§­ BASELINE REGIME:     NORMAL āœ…
  šŸ“Š LIVE REGIME NOWCAST: NORMAL āœ…
              ā””ā”€ Live tape is broadly in line with the completed-session baseline.
  šŸ“ˆ EXPECTED DIRECTION:  BULLISH šŸ“ˆ
  āš” CONFIDENCE:          ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’
  šŸ”„ REGIME CHANGE PROB:  ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’

  CONFIDENCE FACTORS:
    Regime Consistency   ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Range Stability      ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    VXD Alignment        ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Volume Health        ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’

  REGIME CHANGE SIGNALS:
    Range Expanding      ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    YM Term              ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Event Risk           ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Regime Mixed         ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
    Cross-Asset Stress   ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

  šŸ“‹ STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS:
    ā€¢ Balanced conditions for all tiers
    ā€¢ Expect 15-25% option peaks typical
    ā€¢ Good trade frequency expected
    ā€¢ Standard tier logic should work well

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šŸ“‹ TODAY'S TRADING PLAN
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  šŸ’° POSITION SIZING:
      ā€¢ 100% normal size

  āš” REGIME CHANGE WARNING (56% probability):
      ā€¢ Conditions may shift from the current regime
      ā€¢ Stay flexible and wait for confirmation
      ā€¢ Watch the first 30 minutes closely

  šŸŽÆ DIRECTION BIAS:
      ā€¢ Favor YM long setups on pullbacks
      ā€¢ Let winners run a bit longer when momentum confirms

  ā° SESSION TIMING:
      ā€¢ 9:30 EDT-10:00 EDT: Opening volatility
      ā€¢ 10:00 EDT-11:30 EDT: Often the cleanest setups
      ā€¢ 11:30 EDT-2:00 EDT: Lunch lull, be patient
      ā€¢ 2:00 EDT-4:00 EDT: Late-day trend or reversal window

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šŸ“† 2-4 DAY SWING PLAN
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  SWING BIAS:             ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING SIZE:             ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING THESIS:           ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING ENTRY:            ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING INVALIDATION:     ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’
  SWING CATALYST WINDOW:  ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’ā–’

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